Technology roadmaps: An evaluation of their success in the renewable energy sector

摘要

Strategy literature has highlighted success factors for technology roadmaps (TRMs). However, as roadmaps have evolved - from traditional, single organisation roadmaps, towards multiple organisation, sector level roadmaps - their objectives and success criteria have also changed. This paper develops a set of roadmap evaluation metrics, Firmly focussed on evaluating the level of success of a roadmap based on whether its objectives have been translated into actions or policies by the target organisation, and uses them to analyse four renewable energy roadmaps to determine the success factors for developing a contemporary multi-organisation roadmap. The analysis revealed a number of success factors distinctly different from those for traditional roadmaps. The study concludes that, alongside the traditional TRM, a new type of roadmap has emerged, whose principal aim is political persuasion. These roadmaps are written by multiple organisations, often at the sector level, to persuade governments that they should implement the actions and recommendations set out. As a result of the emergence of this new type of roadmap, new metrics and guidance are required for roadmap construction compared to traditional roadmaps.