Biorefineries' impacts on the Austrian forest sector: A system dynamics approach

摘要

This paper considers preceding technical research on wood-biorefineries when assessing the potential socio-economic impacts caused by a practical implementation of the developed technologies and products. Four different scenarios were simulated by using a system dynamics-model called FOHOW covering the entire forest based sector in Austria. At first a base scenario (business as usual) was calculated and then three different bioreflnery-scenarios were assessed. By boosting the gross production value the biorefinery-technologies are capable of securing the competitiveness of the European pulp and paper industry. Sawmills profit from biorefineries as they are able to increase their returns from selling sawmill residues, which is securing their entire competitiveness, at the same time sawnwood prices can be held stable or even a little lower. The use of wood for energy would not be negatively impacted by biorefineries in the scenarios, but the average cost of wood for energy can even decrease. Introducing biorefineries may have positive effects on employment, as there are new jobs established, current jobs in pulp, paper and sawmilling business are secured and new jobs in the downstream processing of the biorefinery products are created.