Investigation of pricing impact on the electrical energy consumption behavior of the household sector by a system dynamics approach

摘要

In this paper, a system dynamics model is developed to show how the changes in electricity price affect consumption pattern of the household sector in Iran. Electricity is a kind of commodity that is very difficult and expensive to be stored, if not impossible. It means that energy supply must always meet the demand. In addition, electricity supply capacity must be at least equal to the peak demand. Therefore, in non-peak hours, a portion of the capacity is not used. Peak shifting (shaving) is one of the demand-side load management techniques that can help such a problem. Moreover, subsidized electricity prices cause the power network to be overloaded in many hours of a day. This research has employed the system dynamics methodology, to analyze structure of consumption in household sector. First, the sector is divided into three income groups, including Low-income, Medium-income and High-income. Then, load pattern of each group is modeled by a bottom-up method, which is based on a fuzzy approach. The proposed model facilitates to investigate how different pricing and subsidizing scenarios can affect the consumption pattern to reshape it by shifting peak hours and/or reducing total consumption.