System engineering risk analysis of diesel engine durability in Latin America

摘要

Between 2010 and 2015, engines in 20-ton excavators in Latin American countries failed with low hours of usage. System maintenance data such as engine oil samples are critical to address engine durability issues seen in equipment operating in the Latin America region. Risk analysis addressing premature engine wear in the Latin America region has not been described in peer-reviewed literature. Thus, the primary objective of this paper is to apply a system engineering standard risk model evaluation to identify, quantify, and prioritize cost risks associated with diesel engine durability in Latin America. This research is based on several data sources, including a database of 7561 engine oil analysis results for the period of 2010 through 2015. These results were obtained from oil analysis laboratories located in the following Latin American countries: Bolivia, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, and Uruguay. This research applied the standard risk model and cataloged the root-causes of risks under two groups: fuel and environment. The paper identified a cause and effect correlation between risk drivers and abnormal oil sample analysis results. After calculating, prioritizing, and mapping each risk, the research concludes that diesel sulfur content and diesel quality are the primary risks that should be addressed in machinery operating in Latin America. Risk and cost threshold formulas are presented in this research and support the conclusions.