System Dynamics and Learning Scenarios for Process Improvement and Regional Resilience: A Study in The Footwear Industry of Southern Brazil

摘要

By means of integrated and systemic resilience strategies, it is possible to reduce vulnerability and risk, and at the same time increase the capacity to adapt to sustainable regional development scenarios. On the other hand, industries that can develop learning skills may address critical situations by adopting systemic thinking that is focused on problem-solving. In this study, our objective is to analyze the dynamics of the footwear industry in the south of Brazil. The secondary objectives are the development of a dynamic model that would a) explain the main processes of the industry, b) chart the projection of learning scenarios that simulate the capacity of improvement in these processes, and c) increase the regional resilience for a time horizon of 10. Action research was used as research method, due to the cooperative and participative involvement that occurs between the researchers and the participants in order to understand the situation and to construct the systems dynamic model of the impact of the footwear-industry activity of a city in the south of Brazil over the city resilience. The studied industry underwent a major economic change; it shifted from the production of commodities to the production of differentiated specialties. From the systemic analysis, five main learning scenarios were identified: (i) the AS IS, (ii) the uniform distribution of investment, (iii) the labor training investment, (iv) the value-added marketing investment, and (v) the solid waste treatment investment. Moreover, four scenarios of comparison were identified as well, namely (i) the large exchange variation and low-level crisis, (ii) the large exchange variation and high-level crisis, (iii) the small exchange variation and high-level crisis, and (iv) the small exchange variation and low-level crisis. The systems dynamic model relied on input data, the opinion of industry experts, performance equations, and graphical functions. The model provided a learning environment that allowed a better understanding systemic filling the gap left by the indexes that purport to measure the resiliency allowing a better understanding of the factors and elements that interact and influence the regional resilience and of the improvements in productive processes in the footwear industry. Thus, simultaneous business investment in determinants of resilience factors contribute to increase resilience in the region where these companies operate? A synergistic effect was observed; that is, resilience could be more easily achieved if the scenarios of labor qualification, value-added marketing, and solid waste treatment were applied simultaneously. These findings were compared to the principles of the BRICS index and were fully aligned. In future studies, it is important to establish a performance index in order to generate models that would be capable of controlling evolutionary paths toward process improvement and of increasing the regional resilience of the industry.