Approximate rooftop solar PV potential of Indian cities for high-level renewable power scenario planning

摘要

Several data-intensive, detailed methodologies for estimating the rooftop PV potential of urban areas have been reported in the literature in the last few years. While such a comprehensive approach is required for working out the implementation aspects, it is not necessary for high-level renewable power scenario planning and generation capacity expansion planning. This paper presents a methodology for generating approximate estimates of the rooftop solar PV potential of cities, for this latter purpose. The focus is on developing a workable estimate, instead of a precise prediction. The methodology is based on a solar-city plan for Mumbai city in India and uses it as the base estimate. The extrapolation factors for extrapolating it to other Indian cities have been identified and modelled using mathematical models and micro-level simulations in PVSyst. The results have been assimilated to estimate the net PV-active rooftop area of a city, which translates directly into the estimated rooftop PV-potential of the city. The methodology has been illustrated by application to thirteen Indian cities, each having a population of more than two million and a total population of 79 million. The total technical rooftop PV potential of these thirteen cities is found to be around 17.8 GWp.