Energy intensity trends and scenarios for China's industrial sectors: a regional case study

摘要

Due to its rapid industrialization and urbanization, China faces the daunting challenge of sharply growing energy and resource consumption. It is now indispensable for the nation to alter its course of development into more sustainable paths in terms of energy and resource efficiency. In this paper, we discuss the energy intensity of the industrial sectors of the Yangtze River Delta, consisting of Shanghai City and the neighboring province of Jiangsu-the fastest economically developing region of the country-and argue possible strategies for energy efficient industrial activities there. We first examine the historical trends of energy intensity associated with industrial sectors and study the factors affecting the evolution of these trends by applying decomposition analysis. We then argue that if "business as usual" (BAU) development patterns are continued, energy intensity level in both regions may surpass China's policy targets in 2010, and GDP growth as well as energy consumption will exceed possible pathways under current policy targets by 2020. Thus, appropriate measures are urgently needed to lower energy intensity and consumption. Based upon these analyses as well as the Chinese government's policy orientation, we propose two options as alternative scenarios for improving practices in energy-intensive industries, particularly targeting the cement and steel production sectors. These options are: (1) diffusion of highly energy efficient technologies into these industries, and (2) promotion of a circular economy and industrial symbiosis. We highlight that these options can potentially lead to energy savings and reductions in resource consumption associated with industrial activities and can serve as a regional model for more sustainable industrial activities in China.