The Precarious Economics of Arab Springs

摘要

Arab political economies have not been conducive to democracy. As measured by comparative shares of employment, credit, total output and other relevant economic indicators, governments have dominated private sectors to a degree unmatched in other emerging regions.1 Autonomous, nongovernmental political organisations thus have had few independent sources of capital on which to draw. Whether rich or poor, Arab governments have deployed their unequalled patronage resources to ensure the subordination, if not the loyalty, of their citizens. The balance of economic power has favoured government over opposition, authoritarianism over democracy. A brief examination of the prospects for the transformation of the Egyptian political economy as a result of the 'January 25 Revolution' into one that could better sustain a democracy may, because of Egypt's importance as a trendsetter, suggest prospects for similar transformations elsewhere in the Arab world.