Saddlepoint approximation reliability method for quadratic functions in normal variables

摘要

If the state of a component can be predicted by a limit-state function, the First and Second Order Reliability Methods are commonly used to calculate the reliability of the component. The latter method is more accurate because it approximates the limit-state function with a quadratic form in standard normal variables. To further improve the accuracy, this study develops a saddlepoint approximation reliability method that does not require additional transformations and approximations on the quadratic function. Analytical equations are derived for the cumulant generating function (CGF) of the limit-state function in standard normal variables, and then the saddlepoint is found by equating the derivative of the CGF to the limit state. Thereafter a closed form solution to the reliability is available. The method can also apply to general nonlinear limit-state functions after they are approximated by a second order Taylor expansion. Examples show the better accuracy than the traditional second order reliability methods. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.