Bayesian stochastic modelling for avalanche predetermination: from a general system framework to return period computations

摘要

Stochastic models are recent but unavoidable tools for snow avalanche hazard mapping that can be described in a general system framework. For the computation of design return periods, magnitude and frequency have to be evaluated. The magnitude model consists of a set of physical equations for avalanche propagation associated with a statistical formalism adapted to the input-output data structure. The friction law includes at least one latent friction coefficient. The Bayesian paradigm and the associated simulation techniques assist considerably in performing the inference and taking estimation errors into account for prediction. Starting from the general case, simplifying hypotheses allows computing the predictive distribution of high return periods on a case-study. Only release and runout altitudes are considered so that the model can use the French database. An inversible propagation model makes it possible to work with the latent friction coefficient as if it is observed. Prior knowledge is borrowed from an avalanche path with similar topographical characteristics. Justifications for the working hypotheses and further developments are discussed. In particular, the whole approach is positioned with respect to both deterministic and stochastic hydrology.