Inexact fuzzy two-stage programming for water resources management in an environment of fuzziness and randomness

摘要

A standard lower-side attainment values based inexact fuzzy two-stage programming (SLA-IFTSP) approach is proposed for supporting multi-water resources management under multi-uncertainties. The method improves upon the existing inexact two-stage stochastic programming by the introduction of a standard average lower-side attainment values based fuzzy linear programming. Multi-uncertainties such as intervals, probabilistic and/or possibilistic distributions and their combinations in water resources management can be directly communicated into the water allocation process. The risk of infea-sibility caused by the random water availabilities can be analyzed by imposing economic penalties when the designed water allocations would not be satisfied after the occurrence of random seasonal flows. Based on the standard average lower-side attainment index, the fuzzy random relationships representing various subjective judgments in the model can be transformed into corresponding deterministic ones without additional constraints, and thus guarantee a higher computational efficiency. A hypothetical case regarding two-source water resources management is adopted for demonstrating its applicability. Reasonable solutions have been generated. They provide desired water allocations with maximized system benefit under different water availability levels. The solutions of intervals with different probabilities can be used for generating decision alternatives. Comparisons between the solutions from SLA-IFTSP and those from ITSP are also undertaken. They show that SLA-IFTSP can generate more reasonable water allocation patterns with higher net system benefits than ITSP.