东营市经济主要以石油化工产业为主,其占据大量的土地资源,产生大量污染物,对于当地的生态系统可持续发展产生了极大的负面影响.土地交易机制是一种有效的规划方法,其可促进土地的使用价值从低向高转变.在实际的生态系统管理规划中,由于不可避免的误差、数据缺失而使输入参数具有不确定性,这将使确定的优化方法受到限制.将采用模糊两阶段优化方法处理系统中的模糊和随机不确定信息;同时将交易机制引入到区域生态系统规划中,通过对交易模式和不交易模式的对比,得到两种模式下的土地交易量、生态服务价值以及工业污染物排放量等.结果表明交易模式适合当前东营市生态系统的可持续发展战略;方法的提出可作为分析和处理系统中不确定性的一种有效的工具.此外,定量分析能够帮助决策者更深入的分析生态服务价值和经济效益之间的关系.本研究通过区域生态系统的土地交易机制,探索可持续发展途径,为当地的经济、生态发展提供可行性建议.%The Dongying economy mainly relies on the petroleum industry,which occupies considerable land resources and produces a large number of pollutants,leading to negative impacts on the sustainable development of the local ecosystem.Land trading is an effective planning method,which can increase ecosystem services by encouraging its movement from low value to high.However,inherent complexities and uncertainties exist in practical regional ecosystem management due to inevitable errors and data losses,which have placed the issue beyond the conventional deterministic optimization methods.In this study,a fuzzy two-stage method was used to tackle fuzzy and stochastic uncertainties.A land trading mechanism was introduced to assist regional ecosystem planning.Improvements in land trading,ecological service value,and pollutant emissions have occurred due to trading and non-trading.The results show that the land trading mechanism is suitable for the regional ecosystem and sustainable development,and the proposed method is an effective tool for analyzing and dealing with uncertainties in the system.In addition,quantitative analysis can help policy makers conduct in-depth analyses of tradeoffs between ecological service value and economic benefits.This study explores a transition pathway for sustainable development through a land trading mechanism,and provides suggestions for the local economic and ecological development.
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