Development of an inexact two-stage stochastic model with downside risk control for water quality management and decision analysis under uncertainty

摘要

Water quality management along rivers involves making water-allocation plans, establishing water quality goals, and controlling pollutant discharges, which is complicated itself but further challenged by existence of uncertainties. In this study, an inexact two-stage stochastic downside risk-aversion programming (ITSDP) model is developed for supporting regional water resources allocation and water quality management problems under uncertainties. The ITSDP method is a hybrid of interval-parameter programming, two-stage stochastic programming, and downside risk measure to tackle uncertainties described in terms of interval values and probability distributions. A water quality simulation model was provided for reflecting the relationship between the water resources allocation, wastewater discharge, and environmental responses. The proposed approach was applied to a hypothetical case for a shared stream water quality management with one municipal, three industrial and two agricultural sectors. A number of scenarios corresponding to different river inflows and risk levels were examined. The results demonstrated that the model could effectively communicate the interval-format and random uncertainties, and risk-aversion into optimization process, and generate a trade-off between the system economy and stability. They could be helpful for seeking cost-effective management strategies under uncertainties, and gaining an in-depth insight into the water quality management system characteristics, and make cost-effective decisions.