Methodology of disaster risk assessment for debris flows in a river basin

摘要

"Disaster risk assessment" is important in the planning of risk management strategies that reduce societal losses. However, governmental agencies in Taiwan generally assess risks that emerge from debris flows without adequately considering risk management and taking a systems approach. This work proposes an approach to thoroughly consider the interactive influence mechanism of debris flow disaster risk. Additionally, a systematic method for assessing disaster risks is developed. This proposed method can be used in the current risk assessment and as a basis for management strategy planning. Based on systems thinking, the components and attributes of a conceptual system of disaster risk management associated with debris flows in a river basin are identified. Subsequently, a conceptual mitigation-hazard-exposure-resistance framework and an indicator system for assessing the debris flow disaster risks in a river basin are identified. The disaster risks for each exposed community in each drainage zone can be systematically calculated based on the current status or plans of prevention and evacuation measures using the proposed indicator system. A case study of implementing the proposed methodology that involves the Chishan River Basin is presented, in which disaster risk according to the current status of prevention and evacuation measures is assessed. Drainage zones and communities with a significant debris flow disaster risk are located; this risk is associated with a lack of adequate prevention and evacuation measures that have been planned of government agencies. Analytical results indicate that the proposed methodology can systematically and effectively assess the disaster risks of a river basin. The proposed methodology provides a valuable reference for governmental agencies that must manage disaster risk associated with debris flows.