A stochastic model for the analysis of the temporal change of dry spells

摘要

In the present paper a stochastic approach which considers the arrival of rainfall events as a Poisson process is proposed to analyse the sequences of no rainy days. Particularly, among the different Poisson models, a non-homogeneous Poisson model was selected and then applied to the daily rainfall series registered at the Cosenza rain gauge (Calabria, southern Italy), as test series. The aim was to evaluate the different behaviour of the dry spells observed in two different 30-year periods, i.e. 1951-1980 and 1981-2010. The analyses performed through Monte Carlo simulations assessed the statistical significance of the variation of the mean expected values of dry spells observed at annual scale in the second period with respect to those observed in the first. The model has then been verified by comparing the results of the test series with the ones obtained from other three rain gauges of the same region. Moreover, greater occurrence probabilities for long dry spells in 1981-2010 than in 1951-1980 were detected for the test series. Analogously, the return periods evaluated for fixed long dry spells through the synthetic data of the period 1981-2010 resulted less than half of the corresponding ones evaluated with the data generated for the previous 30-year period.