An individual-level network model for a hypothetical outbreak of Japanese encephalitis in the USA

摘要

Japanese encephalitis (JE) is a vector-borne disease transmitted by mosquitoes and maintained in birds and pigs. To examine the possible epidemiology of JE in the United States, we use an individual-level network model that explicitly considers the feral pig population and implicitly considers mosquitoes and birds in specific areas of Florida, North Carolina, and South Carolina. To model the virus transmission among feral pigs within a small geographic area (< 60 sq mi areas), two network topologies are considered: Fully connected and Erdos-Renyi networks. Long-distance connections (interstate) are created with limited probability and based on fall and spring bird migration patterns. Patterns of simulated outbreaks support the use of the Erdos-Renyi network because maximum incidence occurs during the fall migration period which is similar to the peak incidence of the closely related West Nile virus, another virus in the Japanese encephalitis group (Flaviviridae) that is transmitted by both birds and mosquitoes. Simulation analysis suggested two important mitigation strategies: for low mosquito vectorial capacity, insecticidal spraying of infected areas reduces transmission and limits the outbreak to a single geographic area. Alternatively, in high mosquito vectorial capacity areas, birds rather than mosquitoes need to be removed/controlled.