Conditional vs marginal estimation of the predictive loss of hierarchical models using WAIC and cross-validation

摘要

The predictive loss of Bayesian models can be estimated using a sample from the full-data posterior by evaluating the Watanabe-Akaike information criterion (WAIC) or using an importance sampling (ISCVL) approximation to leave-one-out cross-validation loss. With hierarchical models the loss can be specified at different levels of the hierarchy, and in the published literature, it is routine for these estimators to use the conditional likelihood provided by the lowest level of model hierarchy. However, the regularity conditions underlying these estimators may not hold at this level, and the behaviour of conditional-level WAIC as an estimator of conditional-level predictive loss must be determined on a case-by-case basis. Conditional-level ISCVL does not target conditional-level predictive loss and instead is an estimator of marginal-level predictive loss. Using examples for analysis of over-dispersed count data, it is shown that conditional-level WAIC does not provide a reliable estimator of its target loss, and simulations show that it can favour the incorrect model. Moreover, conditional-level ISCVL is numerically unstable compared to marginal-level ISCVL. It is recommended that WAIC and ISCVL be evaluated using the marginalized likelihood where practicable and that the reliability of these estimators always be checked using appropriate diagnostics.