The Market for Commercial Communications Satellites 2016-2025

摘要

Demand for data and connectivity will drive growth for all communications services providers, including satellite operators. Satellites play a vital role in the increasingly networked world. They provide links for video broadcasting, corporate networks, broadband Internet, and mobile platforms. In order to succeed in the market, manufacturers will need to take a number of factors into account. First is the growing importance of high throughput satellites, which use spot beams and frequency reuse to expand the amount of data they can transmit and receive. Over a quarter of the satellites delivered in 2014 had an HTS payload. Although the figure dropped in 2015 to 12.8 percent, the number of high throughput satellites is expected to increase going forward. Manufacturers will need to be able to build high throughput satellites in order to compete. In addition, satellites with all-electric propulsion are increasingly becoming popular. The lack of chemical propellant stores can significantly reduce the launch mass of a satellite, and therefore reduce launch costs. While the market for electric propulsion satellites has been slower to catch on than some thought, these satellites will continue to gain in popularity. Many companies are investigating electric propulsion technologies, and two companies - Boeing and Airbus -have successfully recorded sales of electric propulsion satellites. Another major trend is the rise of small satellites. New companies like OneWeb and LeoSat are developing new business models that take advantage of the technology. Manufacturers with experience building small satellites will have a leg up on the competition. For example, Thales Alenia Space leveraged its experience building Iridium NEXT birds to sign a contract with OneWeb to develop its spacecraft. Whether the new small satellite operators will be successful in the long-term remains to be seen. However, they have successfully raised financing, and will deploy new satellites over the next 10 years. The competitive environment will continue to provide both threats and opportunities to satellite manufacturers. U.S.-built satellites have been moved from the U.S. Munitions List (which requires a Defense Department review of satellite exports) to the Commerce Control List (which is managed by the more export-friendly Commerce Department). This should improve the place of U.S. satellites in the overall market. Export credit agencies, which provide government-backed loans or loan insurance, have driven the export of satellites from manufacturers in the U.S., France, and China. The importance of export financing was proven in 2015, when the U.S. Export-Import Bank's charter was not renewed for six months during the year and U.S. manufacturers lost contracts to foreign competitors. Communications satellites utilize radio spectrum to communicate with ground stations. They compete with other services such as terrestrial cell phone carriers and Wi-Fi systems for a portion of spectrum. Without enough spectrum, satellite sales could decline. Based on the study population, the top five commercial communications satellite manufacturers over the next 10 years will be Boeing, Thales Alenia Space, MacDonald, Dettwiler and Associates (MDA - which purchased Space Systems/Loral), Airbus Defence and Space, and Lockheed Martin. In recent years, Boeing and Lockheed Martin have focused more heavily on selling satellites in the commercial market as the government and military market begins to decline. Over the next 10 years, the value of production of commercial satellites is expected to total about $60.7 billion, with 543 satellites to be delivered during that time.