Analysis 4 The Market for Civil & Commercial Remote Sensing Satellites 2016-2025

摘要

Production in the remote sensing satellite industry will remain strong between 2016 and 2025. The rising importance of imagery data around the world and the plans of small satellite operators will continue to drive demand and production. As such, production levels will rise above those in recent history. While an average of 46.6 satellites launched per year between 2011 and 2015, Forecast International projects the average to be 180.8 launches per year between 2016 and 2020. Along with increased production rates, the industry is experiencing rapid change. New players are entering the market, causing possible disruptions for incumbents. Small satellite operators have entirely new business models that differ from those of traditional operators. At the same time, governments are increasingly entering the market as well. In order to be successful in this rapidly changing environment, satellite manufacturers will need to address a number of issues. For example, government buyers of satellites often favor domestic manufacturers. Since governments purchase a large portion of remote sensing satellites, many new satellite contracts are closed to true international competition. Manufacturers would do well to develop strong relationships with their home governments in order to be included on remote sensing satellite projects. That said, countries that do not have domestic satellite manufacturing capability still turn to outside contractors when purchasing new satellites. In these cases, the companies that win are often the ones that are willing to share technology or sign offset agreements in return for contracts. Another major trend within the remote sensing satellite industry is the divergence of sizes. Small satellites are produced in huge numbers, but larger satellites are much more valuable. Going forward, satellite manufacturers will need to acknowledge a split in the industry between large and small satellites. Some manufacturers, like Boeing and Space Systems Loral, are attempting to diversify their offering. Others, like Ball Aerospace, continue to specialize. The new market entrants have created intensifying competition within the remote sensing market for both satellite operators and manufacturers. Satellite manufacturers will need to keep costs in check while also continuing to innovate new technologies. Of importance is the continued trend toward using commercial off-the-shelf technology rather than specially designed - and therefore more expensive -equipment. Over the last five years, satellites launched to low-Earth orbit (including polar and sun-synchronous orbits) made up 95.7 percent of the sample population. During that time, nine geosynchronous satellites were launched, making up 3.8 percent of delivered satellites. Satellite manufacturers looking to compete in the remote sensing market will need to cater to the LEO market. However, GEO satellites can generate much more revenue since they are typically more expensive. Lockheed Martin is projected to be the fifth-largest manufacturer over the next 10 years because it is listed as the prime contractor on a single geosynchronous satellite program. The top five manufacturers of remote sensing satellite systems are projected to be Airbus, Thales Alenia Space, Mitsubishi Electric, NPO Lavochkin, and Lockheed Martin. These companies are involved in a number of important remote sensing projects for both commercial and civil entities. This involvement will drive revenues for these companies over the next 10 years. Forecast International's latest value of production estimate for civil and commercial remote sensing satellite systems is approximately $29 billion between 2016 and 2025. During that time, FI estimates that 1,935 such satellites will be manufactured. Satellites will be purchased to replace aging birds currently in orbit and to expand remote sensing satellite fleets. The acquisition of new satellites will allow for increased global coverage and improved revisit rates.