Past their Prime or Primed for Progress? The Role of State RPS Policies in Sup-porting U.S. Solar Market Growth

摘要

State renewables portfolio standard (RPS) programs have been a key driver for the growth of solar energy in the United States. Although wind energy has historically been the primary source of new renewable capacity built to service RPS requirements, solar has recently come to the fore, reflecting both the proliferation of solar carve-outs and the growing economic competitiveness of solar vis-a-vis wind. As a result, RPS requirements represent almost 75% of all U.S. solar capacity additions through 2015, including roughly 5 GW of solar capacity for RPS solar carve-outs (mostly distributed PV in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions) and an additional 11 GW currently being used to meet general, non-technology-specific RPS obligations (mostly utility-scale PV and CSP in the Southwest). Going forward, current RPS policies will require an additional 60 GW of renewable capacity by 2030, mostly in the Mid-Atlantic and West, much of which will likely be solar. However, a variety of uncertainties lie on the horizon that could curtail that growth. Legal and statutory challenges to RPS rules have been, and continue to be, raised in many states. RPS cost caps and declining alternative compliance payment schedules may constrain further growth. And many states are scheduled to reach their final RPS targets within the corning 5 to 10 years, with varying prospects for extension or expansion. This presentation discusses these and other trends, highlighting the past and future role of state RPS programs in supporting U.S. solar market growth.