Data-Driven Risk Preference Analysis in Day-Ahead Electricity Market

摘要

Risk preference is an important factor in electricity market strategy analysis and decision-making. The existing methods of risk preference analysis need to design and execute questionnaires or experiments on the subjects, and hence are costly and time-consuming for bidding in electricity markets. This article proposes a new method of data-driven risk preference analysis for power generation plants based on historical data and inverse reinforcement learning. Historical data are transformed to the transition function model according to the specific market mechanism. An adjusted inverse reinforcement learning model is thereafter proposed along with the optimization objective and technical constraints. The proposed method is tested in a simulated electricity market environment using the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) day-ahead bidding data. Simulation results show that 1) thermal power plants prefer to adjust risk preferences within the day; 2) apart from the thermal power plants, the rest types of power plants are risk-neutral; 3) the daily risk preference trend of the thermal power plants varies in different seasons and is closely related to the load level.