农业技术应用中种稻大户风险偏好实证分析--基于江西省1077户农户调查

摘要

Based on economic theory analysis,it is concluded that large-scale rice-planting farmers’ pro⁃duction and business operation decisions,especially those on agricultural technology application,are mainly af⁃fected by their risk preference.In fact,obvious discrepancy is noticed in their decisions about agriculture technol⁃ogy application as they prefer different types of risk.Drawing on the experience of Rogers’Innovation Diffusion Theory,the study indicates that these farmers’ risk preference can be divided into three types,namely,risk pref⁃erence,risk indifference and risk aversion. Meanwhile, based on the survey of 1 077 large⁃scale rice⁃planting farmers in 16 counties of Jiangxi Province,Ordered Logistic Model and econometric analysis were conducted to explore some major factors influencing farmers’risk preference.Similarities and differences of the three types of farmers’risk preference were found.Finally,the study proposes that government,in popularizing modern agricul⁃tural technology,should consider what type a farmer belongs to when guiding him in his decision making.%通过经济学理论分析可得，种稻大户生产经营决策，尤其是农业技术应用决策主要受其风险偏好影响，不同的风险偏好类型使得种稻大户农业技术应用决策行为差异明显。借鉴Rogers的创新扩散理论，将种稻大户的风险偏好分为3种类型，即风险偏好型、风险中立型和风险规避型。基于对江西省16个县1077户种稻大户的调研数据，运用多元有序Logistic模型对影响种稻大户风险偏好的主要因素进行计量分析，旨在找出3种风险偏好类型种稻大户具有的异同特征。基于实证研究结果，提出在现代农业技术推广过程中政府应因“型”进行引导的具体思路。