Is poker a game of luck or skill?

摘要

Las Vegas, Nevada, 11 July 2015. Day 4 of the World Series of Poker (WSOP) main event. The tournament began with 6420 players paying S10 000 apiece to enter. Now only about 400 remain. Some are legendary poker professionals, while others are amateurs taking a shot at glory. The tension and drama increase with each card that is dealt. Millions of dollars - and the title of World Champion - hang in the balance. To win takes great skill, but also a huge amount of luck. But which is more important: skill or luck? This has been the subject of intense legal debate for decades. For instance, in 2007 an English court ruled that poker is primarily a game of luck in finding the owner of London's Gutshot Club guilty of violating the Gaming Act, which requires a licence to host games of chance but not games of skill (bbc.in/2lcMYLa). However, in 2009 the organiser of a poker club in Colorado was found not guilty of illegal gambling on games of chance in a trial where the jury agreed with a statistician's testimony contending that poker is a game of skill. Two courts and two different rulings offer little in the way of clarity. So, to determine whether poker is primarily a game of skill or luck, we first need to define what those two words mean in this particular context. That is what this article sets out to do. It offers a definition of luck and skill in poker, and highlights certain scenarios involving real poker hands in which the luck and skill components can readily be quantified. Our focus will be on the game Texas hold 'em, the most popular version of poker played today, and we will begin with an example illustrating basic rules, concepts and terminology surrounding the game.