ISL InfoLine Special No 12

摘要

China's share of the world's total exports might decline for the first time in 16 years in 2012 because of weaker world demand and a stronger yuan, an expert from the country's top think tank said on Monday. "Although 'Made-in-China' products are still the most competitive in the global market, the risk is that (the country's) share of the global export market may shrink," said Zhang Qizi, assistant director of the Institute of Economics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS). The share of the nation's exports in the world's total grew from 4.3 percent in 2001, when China joined the World Trade Organization, to 10.3 percent in 2010. Growth momentum slowed after the global downturn in 2008, but there could still be an increase in the share for 2011, Zhang said. A decline next year would be the first since 1996. Zhang noted the uncertainties developing for the coming year and the declining competitiveness of China's exports amid the global downturn. Anticipated weak growth rates in the United States and Europe pose large obstacles to China's exports and may trigger more protectionism against Chinese products, Zhang said. According to the CASS outlook for China's 2012 industrial competitiveness, exports of resource- and labor-intensive products will remain the most competitive in China's export structure. These Chinese exports account for 34 percent of all world exports in this category and are still increasing rapidly. Although experts urged China to attach more importance to the service sector in its economic transition, the country's service-sector exports account for less than 5 percent of the global market, equivalent to one-third of the US level. The CASS forecast comes as the country awaits the results of the 2011 Central Economic Work Conference, which will analyze the international and domestic economic situations and map out plans for economic development during 2012.