Semiconductor Device Revenue: 1950-2010

摘要

At the beginning, in the 1950s, semiconductor device revenue increased at about 300% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), then slowed to 16-17.5% overall CAGR from 1962 to 1995. Figure 1, a log-linear plot, illustrates this exponential growth with straight lines. On the time scale of a few years, revenue growth was erratic with a general pattern of increasing at ～ 20-25% year over year for 3-4 years, followed by 1-2 years of correction and recovery. Pronounced peak/valleys occurred in 1974/75 and 1984/85; however, on the dollar scale of Figures 1 and 2, these traumatic periods are less noticeable than they were at the time. In the mid-1990s, with the telecommunications and dot-com booms, device revenue peaked in 1995, then peaked strongly again in 2000, driven by equipment purchases to resolve Y2K concerns along with the end of the dot-com boom. In Figure 2, a linear dollar scale more clearly illustrates the oscillating revenue in the 1990s that led to the most severe correction the industry has experienced.