Darker Clouds Promise Brighter Future for Climate Models

摘要

As mirrors of the real world, climate models are far from perfect. These computer simulations of how solar energy and Earth's ocean and atmosphere interact can't even get today's climate entirely right. And when they're asked to prognosticate, the results are even worse: When researchers use them to predict how the intensifying greenhouse will affect the world in the next century, the models give answers ranging from a modest warming of 1.5°C to a scorching increase of 4.5°C. These shortcomings are no great surprise, given the number of climate processes that are poorly understood or totally unknown. Now one of those processes has come into sharper focus: the fate of sunlight passing through clouds.