Anxious farmers and sodden picnickers may not believe it, but weather forecasts are actually getting better. By giving computer models such tweaks as a sharper picture of atmospheric properties or more realistic processes for turning water vapor intorain, meteorologists have made their forecasts much more accurate over the last 10 or 20 years; their computer models can now make useful predictions of the atmosphere's chaotic behavior up to a week in advance. Most Americans aren't reaping the full rewards of this improved forecasting skill, because official daily forecasts stop at 5 days. But in a year, the official forecasts may reflect the computational successes.
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