Influenza: Accounting for Prior Immunity

摘要

In Their Report "Pandemic potential of a strani of influenza a(H1N1): Earlyfinkings" (19 June, p. 1557), C. Fraser et al. analyzed the spread of novel A/H1N1 influenza in Mexico. They reported values for the basic reproduction number in a fully susceptible population (R_0) in the range 1,2 to 1.6. It would have been preferable to instead report these as values for the effective reproduction number given prior immunity (R). The authors acknowledge that cross-rnimmunity may lead to increased R_0 estimates. However, by conflating R_0 and R, they effectively assume that with a new virus, the entire population is susceptible. We do not believe that this assumption is necessarily justified.