Bayes' Confidence

摘要

Neither the perspective "bayes' theo-rem in the 21st century" (B. Efron, 7 June, p. 1177) nor the responding Letter "A statistically significant future for Bayes' rule" (R. van Hulst, 26 July, p. 343) refer to the mystical flavor often associated with Bayes in their discussions of the theorem's popularity. Bayes had a propensity to use names that suggest something more than what is directly being described. For example, "Bayes' rule" is just conditional probability applied in a specialized context. The "controversial theorem" is nothing more than a formula for conditional probability.