Does high risk mean high loss: Evidence from flood disaster in southern China

摘要

Southern China has suffered from flood disasters for over sixty years, which results in tremendous socio-economic loss. With the development of economy and the improvement of disaster reduction, both the exposure and potential loss of flood disaster are increasing. However, previous studies only focus on risk assessment few has examined the comparison of potential risk and the actual losses caused by it. To this end, a method combing entropy weight and TOPSIS based on flood data (2008 to 2018) in China's national and provincial disaster database is applied to analysis flood risk and resulting loss in southern China. By using disaster system dimensions of hazard, exposure and vulnerability, the effect of natural, economic and social factors on flood risk are also examined. Results indicate that: (1) flood risk in southern China is relatively low from 2008 to 2014 and becomes severe since 2016; (2) the resulting losses of flood disasters in southern China are optimistic during most of the selected years in the study period; (3) flood risk is not always in line with the resulting loss; and (4) flood disasters in southern China are categorized into high-risk and low-loss situation, low-risk and high-loss situation, and the situation with the same level of risk and loss. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to assess southern China on a regional scale from both temporal and spatial perspectives, and has compensated for the lack of comparative research on flood risk and the resulting loss. In practice, our findings can protrude the priorities of flood prevention both in flood-prone areas and specific measures, which is conducive to improve the efficiency of resource allocation.