Spatiotemporal regularity and spillover effects of carbon emission intensity in China's Bohai Economic Rim

摘要

The Bohai Economic Rim (BER) is a momentous economic growth district with rapid development in northern China, but the environmental problems there have also become prominent. In 2017 the BER's carbon emission intensity outclassed the national average, the emission reduction situation was also grim. For clarifying the influence mechanism of the economy on carbon emission intensity, this paper explores the spatiotemporal regularity, the spatial correlation, and the spillover effect in carbon emission intensity employing the Moran index and the spatial Durbin model. The results indicate that the carbon emission intensity in the BER decreased year-by-year from 2006 to 2017. Shanxi and Inner Mongolia were emission hot spots, whereas Beijing and Tianjin were emission cold spots. And the Moran's I values all passed the significance test, which verified the spatial correlation of the carbon emission intensity in the BER is significant. Urbanization, energy intensity, population density, and industry structure have a biggish impact on such spatial distribution of the carbon emission intensity. The direct effect coefficient of the energy intensity is the highest, and the spillover effect of the industry structure is the most significant. Finally, this paper puts forward suggestions on the formulation of regional coordinated carbon reduction programs in the BER.