Fuzzy statistic and comprehensive evaluating study for activity characterization of the active region

摘要

In this paper, the theory and method of the fuzzy mathematics are used to probe the con- nection between the activity of the active region and characterization of the sunspot groups, to build the subordinating function according to the relationship between them and to evaluate comprehensively the activity of the active region on the solar disk. The precise prediction of activity of the active regions has been obtained by data reduction and analysis. The predicting accuracy is higher than 95/100. Forecast results indicate that the method of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is a good one for the solar activ- ity prediction.