Apposite Statistical Model to view the occurrence of Tropical Cyclones and Severe Tropical cyclones

摘要

Purpose of this paper is to categorize suitable statistical model to view the occurrence of Tropical Cyclones (TC) and Severe Tropical Cyclones (STC). The goodness of fit of Binomial & Poisson distribution is checked with the data series pertaining to the occurrence and non - occurrence of TC and STC over different segments of Bay coast. The results show that the Poisson distribution could be a better predictive model for the occurrence of tropical cyclones whereas both Binomial & Poisson distributions are desirable models for forecasting the occurrence of severe tropical cyclones.