Probabilistic Regional Climate Projecting as a Basis for the Development of Adaptation Programs for the Economy of the Russian Federation

摘要

The feasibility of applying probabilistic regional climate projection approach for mass ensemble simulations at the 25-km resolution across Russia is considered. Major attention is paid to the analysis of future changes in climate indicators of temperature and precipitation conditions, which significantly affect the operation reliability of constructions and technical systems including transport and energy infrastructure facilities. Along with the mean estimates, we used the frequency criteria which allow quantifying the estimates of return periods for various-intensity extreme events in the middle and end of the 21st century. The results of the study may be considered as an information basis for the development of adaptation programs for the Russian economy.