Grain Crops Productivity in the European Part of Russia under Recent Climate Change

摘要

Trends in agro-climatic resources and wheat yields in the main grain regions of European Russia are considered. The analysis is based on the results of calculations performed with the Climate -Soil-Yield simulation system. The results reveal a relative decline in climate-driven yields of 10 to 30% over two decades for both winter and spring wheat. Multiple regression equations linking yield trends with indicators characterizing the state of agro-climatic resources are determined. They show differences in climate driven yield trends between spring and winter wheat. However, differences are only marginally significant suggesting that switching from spring wheat varieties to winter wheat would not completely neutralize the negative impact of climate trends. The probability of occurrence of drought in the grain regions of the European part of Russia is calculated for 1998-2017. The areas where the probability of occurrence of severe droughts during May-August equals or exceeds 50% are determined.