Changes in Water Resources under Conditions of Climate Warming and Their Impact on Water Inflow to Russian Large Reservoirs

摘要

Changes are considered in the runoff regime of Russian rivers and in the water inflow to reservoirs as a result of the climate warming observed in the country since the second half of the 1970s. Based on the analysis of long-term observational data on water inflow to 41 large reservoirs with the volume of 10 x 10(6) m(3), it is shown that considerable changes in its intraannual distribution have occurred in the recent decades. These changes are characterized, in particular, by the inflow increase during the cold season and by the runoff variability increasing in winter and summer-autumn seasons. The growth of the number of severe hydrological events, especially of flash floods induced by rainfalls, has been registered in the recent decades. Potential future changes in water inflow to reservoirs are considered in accordance with the scenarios of further climate warming. It is justified that rules of using water resources of reservoirs should be corrected taking into account the observed changes in the river water inflow regime.