INFLUENCE OF POSSIBLE CLIMATE CHANGES ON HYDROLOGICAL REGIME OF A CATCHMENT-LAKE SYSTEM

摘要

The effect of possible changes in climatic parameters (precipitation and air temperature) on hydrological characteristics of a catchment-lake system is under study. Possible changes in the runoff, snow storage, soil moistening, lake level, and phosphor and organic matter removal in the 21st century are analyzed for Lake Krasnoe and its catchment. A mathematical model describing the relationships between climatic parameters and hydrological characteristics is applied as a tool of analysis. As input data the model uses climate scenarios calculated from the atmosphere-ocean general circulation model and adapted to the conditions of the catchment under consideration. It is demonstrated that the effect of possible climate changes and intensified land use in the Lake Krasnoe catchment area on the hydrological regime is intercomparable.