STATISTICAL ESTIMATES OF CHANGES IN CLIMATE ELEMENTS IN PERMAFROST REGIONS OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

摘要

A comprehensive analysis is performed of changes in the air temperature and soil temperature at depths using data on precipitation amount and snow depth for 1961-2003 from observations at northern Russian weather stations. The range of deviations of air and soil temperature data is estimated for different averaging periods and of their prognostic values up to 2020: from -0.9 to 3.4℃ for air temperature; from -0.2 to 2.4℃ for soil temperature at a depth of 0.8 m, and from -0.5 to 2.2℃ for soil temperature at 1.6 m. Linear air temperature trend coefficients are calculated. They change, on average, from 0.013 to 0.058℃/yr for the year as a whole, from 0.014 to 0.072℃/yr for a cold period, and from 0.012 to 0.044℃/yr for a warm period. Coefficients of the linear trend of soil temperature at depths are, on average, within 0.004 and 0.059℃/yr over the year as a whole, from -0.018 to 0.119℃/yr in a cold period, and from -0.035 to 0.071℃/year in a warm period. Examples are given of soil temperature reconstruction with simple and multiple regressions.