Investigation of Parameterization Effect on the Methane Flux Estimation from the Regional Climate Model of the Main Geophysical Observatory for the Territory of Russia

摘要

An effect is studied of parameterization method of the methane flux from the wetlands of Siberia on the results of model estimates carried out using the one-dimensional model of heat transfer in the soils. The results of computations of the regional climate model of the Main Geophysical Laboratory are used as the input data of this model. The computation estimates of seasonal methane flux variations at certain observation points are compared with the measured values of the methane flux. It is shown that the optimal choice of methane flux parameterization at the use of the grid climate model data as the forcing should correspond to the conditions of prevailing subgrid natural complex of one or another type of wetlands. A spatial distribution of methane emission intensity under conditions of the present-day climate and at the end of the 21st century is obtained. The analysis revealed that the methane fluxes in Western Siberia will increase by 1.5-2.5 times by the end of the 21st century.