Scenary Forecasts of Air Temperature Variations for the Regions of the Russian Federation up to 2030 Using the Empirical Stochastic Climate Models

摘要

It is demonstrated that the results of the climate modeling cannot be directly used to forecast the regional climate changes on the territory of the Russian Federation for one-three decades due to the strong influence of the natural long-period climatic variability associated with the processes in the ocean-atmosphere system in the North Atlantic. A model is proposed of the temperature variations in the regions of the Russian Federation including the variations of the global temperature and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. An empirical dynamic-stochastic model with external radiation impacts is used for the global temperature. Different scenarios of concentration variations of the radiation-active atmospheric components and NAO are considered. It is demonstrated that depending on the accepted hypothesis concerning the type of the expected NAO variations (natural fluctuations or the result of anthropogenic impacts) and on the scenario of concentration variations of the sulfate aerosols and methane, the average annual temperature variations on the territory of the Russian Federation between 2007 and 2030 may amount from 0.81 to 1.90°C. The estimates of temperature variations for the main physiographic regions of the Russian Federation are obtained.