Simulation of Time Series of Storms and Weather Windows Based on Wind Conditions Data

摘要

Stated is an approach to the simulation of time series of storms and weather windows using the data on their frequency. Using the results of wind reanalysis for the Norwegian, Barents, and White seas for 1975-2002, the statistical relationships are obtained between the frequency of storms and the mean values of the number of storms and their continuous duration, as well as between the distribution functions of the number of storms and their continuous duration and the mean values. Based on the revealed regularities, the simulation model is constructed enabling to generate the time series of storms and weather channels. The model is verified by means of computing the residuals between the specified and simulated frequency of storm conditions for the set of 100 monthly series, as well as by means of comparing the results of the computation of weather channels based on the reanalysis and simulation data.