PRELIMINARY RESULTS OF COSMO MODEL FORECAST FOR THE ROMANIAN TERRITORY CASE STUDIES

摘要

The aim of this paper is to analyze the performance of COSMO (Consortium for small Scale Modeling) model in situation with severe weather cases (strong atmospheric instability, observed heavy precipitation) and made a statistical inter-comparison between COSMO and HRM (High Resolution Model) models. The period of statistical evaluation is February-August 2005, corresponding to first pre-operational COSMO model runs at the National Meteorological Administration, in Bucharest. The statistical scores were made using the surface observations from 160 meteorological stations on the Romanian territory. The experiments for the severe weather situation was realized using two different precipitation schemes for COSMO model at two horizontal resolutions (7 km and 2.8 km). The results show an improvement of quality forecast for COSMO model, most evident for summer months and the ability of the model to realistically simulate small-scale features in experiments at fine resolution. Also, the experiments for cases with heavy precipitations showed the model capability to simulate well the spatial distribution of the precipitation field.