Climate Impacts on Agriculture: Insights from Agronomic-Economic Analysis

摘要

This article examines the use of process-based agronomic, livestock, and farming systems models with economic models for analysis of climate impact and adaptation. First we describe the integrated assessment approach to climate impact assessment and the simulation experiments that are needed to address stakeholders' questions about impact and adaptation and discuss the capabilities and limitations of alternative modeling approaches. Then we describe how crop simulation models can be combined with economic models to form "hybrid structural models" that can be used to conduct relevant simulation experiments and discuss the strengths and limitations of crop simulation models. We conclude that economic assessments of climate impact and adaptation could be improved by further developing methods, data, and software that enable researchers to use biophysical crop, livestock, and farming systems models with economic models. We also propose that economic models used for climate impact assessment could be improved though systematic intercomparisons by utilizing established methods from climate science, such as the design and use of standardized reference scenarios and simulation experiments.