Analysis of Jordan's industrial energy intensity and potential mitigations of energy and GHGs emissions

摘要

This paper aims to identify the main drivers behind energy intensity changes of the Jordanian industrial sector and to introduce the impact of energy efficient measures within the Jordanian industrial sector. To achieve these objectives, two empirical models were developed for electricity and fuel intensities, respectively of the Jordanian industrial sector based on muitivariate linear regression. It was found that the structural effect, electricity prices, capacity utilizations and number of employees are the most important variables that affect changes of electricity intensity while fuel prices, capacity utilizations and number of employees factors are the most important variables that affect fuel intensity. The results show that muitivariate linear regression model can be used adequately to simulate industrial energy intensity with very high coefficient of determination. Also, the impact of implementing energy saving technologies, such as use of high efficiency motors (HEMs), optimize motor size, variable speed drives (VSDs), bare steam pipes insulations, steam leak prevention, steam traps repair, and adjustment of boiler air/fuel ratio were investigated and found to be significant. Without such basic energy conservation and management programs, energy consumptions and associated GHG emissions for the industrial sector are predicted to rise by 25% and 23%, respectively in the year 2021. If these measures are implemented on a gradual basis, over the next decade, industrial energy consumption is predicted to rise at a lower rate, reaching 11.9% for same period with low/no cost actions. This would yield an estimated annual emission reductions of 570 × 10~3t. In addition, the total installed capacity cost savings is estimated to be around 81.9 million US$ by year 2021.