Nonlinear production path and an alternative reserves estimate for South Asian natural gas

摘要

Natural gas is a finite resource that may be estimated directly, through geophysical methodologies, or indirectly, through historical production data. The rapid growth in consumption of this limited natural resource, strictly connected to the oil economy, may lead to its imminent depletion and a related economic crisis. The transition to a new economy, based on renewable and sustainable energy resources, is a crucial challenge for the next decades at world and regional levels, with different dynamics. Therefore, an accurate forecast of the availability of natural gas is important to ensure a sustainable energy policy, providing essential information about the timing of this transition. Postulating a finite life cycle of recoverable resources, in this paper we investigate the natural gas production of four neighboring South Asian states: Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, and Pakistan. We use a number of homogeneous diffusion models, with convenient extensions, and check the model validation in terms of prediction capability. The results indicate that India and Myanmar have already extracted more than 50% of their ultimately recoverable natural gas resources (URR), whereas good prospects for natural gas extraction remain in the near future for Bangladesh and Pakistan. The four neighboring Asian states can build a sustainable power reserve system for natural gas to meet their increasing demand within a medium-term horizon. Some further policy implications are also suggested in this paper. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.