Low-carbon development of China's thermal power industry based on an international comparison: Review, analysis and forecast

摘要

A comprehensive review of the thermal power industry and the accurate forecasting of carbon emissions can provide valuable information to improve energy efficiency and act as a tool for policy makers to realize sustainable and low-carbon emissions from the thermal power industry. In this paper, we study the low-carbon development of China's thermal power industry based on an international comparison from three perspectives: review, analysis and forecast. Initially, we review both the international and national energy consumption of China; although gaps in energy efficiency still exist between China and countries with advanced thermal power technology, China's thermal power industry is gradually following a low-carbon development route. Then, we analyze low-carbon technologies for thermal power units, including ultra-super-critical technology, integrated gasification combined cycle technology, and carbon capture and storage technology and present a design for environmental protection technology for thermal power units. Carbon emissions should be effectively and successfully handled to improve the prospects of China's thermal power industry. Therefore, this paper forecasts carbon emissions by using a hybrid grey model that is optimized by the firefly algorithm and adjusted by weakening buffer operator based on the calculated carbon emissions. If China's carbon emissions from the thermal power industry increase according to the present rate, China will have difficulty in realizing its carbon reduction target by 2020. Finally, related future policies for the 13th Five-Year Plan of China are proposed based on low-carbon policies around the world with regard to financial, technological and industrial aspects to help the thermal power industry achieve healthy and low-carbon development.