Probabilistic modelling of hybrid solar/wind power system with solar tracking system

摘要

This paper presents a probabilistic model applied to a hybrid solar-wind power system (HSWPS), which is equipped with either a one-axis or a two-axis solar tracking system. Within the framework of a case study, the potential of the developed probabilistic approach is presented, and the effect of the solar tracking systems on the annual energy gain is discussed. Specifically, the impact of a tracking system on the probability density function (PDF) of the power produced by a photovoltaic system (PVS) is evaluated through the first four moments (mean, variance, skewness and kurtosis) of a PDF. Finally, to estimate the impact of a tracking system on HSWPS energy performance, a reliability analysis is performed using the energy index of reliability (EIR), which is directly related to energy expected not supplied (EENS), given different annual load scenarios.