Business potential of sustainable energy in Korea: Hybrid method of various feasibility studies from path dependence and path evolution perspective

摘要

It is a common practice, in Korea as well as other countries, to use economic feasibility study for policymaker or business communities before deciding substantial investments on sustainable energy projects especially photovoltaic industry in 2008. Many feasibility studies provided the basis for worldwide investments in the photovoltaic industry in 2008 by many Korean firms. In 2011, however, many firms have decided to withdraw from the photovoltaic industry and retract investments. This research analyzes the gap between the results of the conventional feasibility study and the reality in the perspective of path dependence and path evolution, and proposes a hybrid market feasibility study model to account for the gap. In other words, conducting conventional feasibility studies do not incorporate changes in economic feasibility due to changes in society and are thus not precise in predicting market feasibility when the business environment has changed. In addition, this study shows how policy support can create a bubble in the sustainable energy industry and distort the market value. Policy support is necessary, but must be implemented with right timing, contents and delivery system.