Genetic algorithms and Monte Carlo simulation for Optimal plant design

摘要

We present an approach to the optimal plant design (choice of system layout and components) under conflicting safety and economic constraints, based upon the coupling of a Monte Carlo evaluation of plant operation with a Genetic Algorithms-maximization procedure. The Monte Carlo simulation model provides a flexible tool, which enables one to describe relevant aspects of plant design and operation, such as standby modes and deteriorating repairs, not easily captured by analytical models. The effects of deteriorating repairs are described by means of a modified Brown--Proschan model of imperfect repair which accounts for the possibility of an increased proneness to failure of a component after a repair. The transitions of a component from standby to active, and vice versa, are simulated using a multiplicative correlation model. The genetic algorithms procedure is demanded to optimize a profit function which accounts for the plant safety and economic performance and which is evaluated, for each possible design, by the above Monte Carlo simulation. In order to avoid an overwhelming use of computer time, for each potential solution proposed by the genetic algorithm, we perform only few hundreds Monte Carlo histories and, then, exploit the fact that during the genetic algorithm population evolution, the fit chromosomes appear repeatedly many times, so that the results for the solutions of interest (i.e. the best ones) attain statistical significance.