A pilot study for errors of commission for a boiling water reactor using the CESA method

摘要

Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) typically focuses on the errors leading to the non-performance of required actions (Errors of Omission, EOOs). On the other hand, Errors Of Commission (EOCs) refer to inappropriate, undesired actions that aggravate an accident scenario. The challenges to their treatment in PSA relate to both their identification (which error events should be included in the PSA) and to the quantification of their probabilities. This paper presents the results from a plant-specific study to identify potential EOC vulnerabilities and quantify their risk significance. The study addresses a Boiling Water Reactor (BWR) in Switzerland. It is one of the first EOC analyses ever made for BWRs. The Commission Error Search and Assessment (CESA) method was used to identify EOC scenarios. The EOC probabilities were estimated using the elicitation approach developed as part of the ATHEANA method (A Technique for Human Event Analysis), with input from interviews with plant personnel (with oral as well as written questions). The basis for the quantification was a qualitative analysis of the scenario, the operator response and its procedural basis, and of the opportunities for the EOC and its recovery. The results suggest that the contribution to risk of the most important EOCs is comparable to that of the most important errors of omission, i.e. the required actions typically treated in a PSA; thus, they highlight the significance of EOCs in the overall risk profile of the plant. This study demonstrates the feasibility of a systematic treatment of EOCs for large-scale applications and contributes to understanding the importance of EOCs in the plant risk profile.